Energy desks warn of 2026 surplus scenarios despite headlines

Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 09:45 UTC+01:00 (+0100), N/A, N/A

News category : Commodity and Currency Events

Research teams at several trading houses published notes on November 30 reiterating that the balance for 2026 could tilt toward surplus under a range of assumptions, including modest OPEC+ production moderation and resilient non-OPEC output. While diplomatic developments around Ukraine and supply outages can cause episodic spikes, models showing a potential surplus influenced hedging decisions and capital allocation for producers and refiners. Market participants said the guidance encourages conservative budgeting among exporters and supports physical-market strategies that prioritise storage and flexibility.

Overall market impact

Mild bearish market impact - strength score : 72/100

Detailed breakdown of market impact over instruments, sectors, and asset classes

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Impacted instruments :

Brent and WTI futures

Energy equities

Commodity derivatives

Oil-exporter sovereign bonds

EM FX

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