Powell says December cut is 'not a foregone conclusion'

Thursday, October 30, 2025 at 20:15 UTC+01:00 (+0100), United States, Washington, D.C.

News category : Macroeconomic Events

At a post-policy press briefing on October 30, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that, although the Fed had cut rates recently, an additional cut in December was far from certain. He pointed to gaps in incoming data caused by the U.S. government shutdown and a split of views among policymakers, outlining a data-dependent approach rather than a mechanical path to further easing. Markets had been heavily priced for continued cuts; Powell’s careful language forced traders to recalibrate probabilities and led to immediate repricing in short-dated interest-rate futures. The result was wider intraday swings in Treasuries and a tightening of liquidity in some rate-sensitive products as investors rebalanced duration exposure. Economists noted Powell did not rule out future cuts, but his emphasis on conditionality increased sensitivity to upcoming macro releases.

Overall market impact

Strong mixed market impact - strength score : 92/100

Detailed breakdown of market impact over instruments, sectors, and asset classes

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Impacted instruments :

US Treasury yields

Interest-rate futures

USD FX pairs

US equities (growth vs value)

Short-dated bond ETFs

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